2016 March Madness – Midwest region

(1) Virginia vs (16) Hampton:

Although they lost the ACC conference championship to North Carolina, Virginia is primed for a deep tournament run. The Cavaliers play at the slowest pace in all of college basketball, but it’s to their own advantage, as they slow down up-tempo teams and stifle opponents with their defense. Hampton is just happy to be here at this point; they got blown out in their only games against power conference competition this season. 16 seeds have played some close games in recent years, but don’t expect this one to be of that breed. Winner: Virginia

(8) Texas Tech vs (9) Butler:

Texas Tech played in the toughest conference in all of college basketball in the Big 12 and still managed to pull out a .500 record. The Red Raiders are one of those “good-not-great” teams with a nice balance of offense and defense. Despite former coach Brad Stevens’ departure, the Butler Bulldogs have lots of experience in March and will put up a lot of points. This one should remain close throughout, but I see Butler sneaking out with the W. Winner: Butler

(5) Purdue vs (12) Little Rock:

The physically imposing Purdue Boilermakers are headlined by the 7-foot, 260-pound AJ Hammons, who ranks in the top five in the Big Ten for rebounds per game, blocks per game, and field goal percentage. The Little Rock Trojans are in the middle of the road in most statistical categories, but they play a slow-paced game and wear down their opponents physically. Purdue was on a bit of a hot streak heading into the tournament before falling to the Michigan State Spartans, and I expect them to continue their momentum heading into March.  Winner: Purdue

(4) Iowa State vs (13) Iona:

After being chosen as a sleeper contender by many analysts last season, the Iowa State Cyclones were upset in the first round. Former coach Fred Hoiberg has moved on to coach the Chicago Bulls in the NBA, but he has left behind a brilliant offensive juggernaut, which focuses on a fast “pace-and-space” scheme. Georges Niang, who many consider to be in contention for multiple season awards, is a Swiss Army knife for the Cyclones; he averages around 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. The Iona Gaels play a similar brand of basketball, as they average almost 80 points a game as a team and are led by AJ English’s 22.4 ppg. I smell an upset brewing here; the Gaels are on an eight-game winning streak, after all. Winner: Iona

(6) Seton Hall vs (11) Gonzaga:

Seton Hall surprised many when it defeated both Xavier and Villanova to capture the Big East tournament championship. The Pirates are highlighted by guard Isaiah Whitehead, who has played admirably as of late and leads the team in scoring. Seton Hall doesn’t take good care of the basketball, however, as they have a negative assist-to-turnover ratio, which places 225th among 351 qualifying teams. The Zags have a good amount of talent in the names of Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, who are both projected to be drafted in the 2016 NBA draft and average over 17 points per game each. However, their play hasn’t matched their potential this season, and I see the Pirates continuing to climb even further. Winner: Seton Hall

(3) Utah vs (14) Fresno State:

After losing the Pac-12 championship by a fairly large margin to Oregon, the Utes’ nine-game winning streak was snapped. Jakob Poeltl, who many consider to be a top ten draft pick, leads the way with his 17.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg, and 1.6 bpg. Utah is an efficient basketball team (49% on field goals, ninth in college basketball) as well. Fresno State, however, is not to be taken lightly; they, too, have played amazing basketball as of late and have stellar guard play, a variable often associated with success in March. The Bulldogs take good care of the basketball and follow the lead of guard Marvelle Harris, who averages almost 21 points a game. In the end, though, I expect Utah’s pure talent to prevail. Winner: Utah

(7) Dayton vs (10) Syracuse:

Unfortunately for them, the Dayton Flyers will not have the home-court advantage they possessed last season in the first round, when they lucked into playing on their own campus. Dayton is not to be underestimated, however, as they are coached by Archie Miller and have depth from top to bottom. The Syracuse Orange are back in the tournament after serving a postseason ban due to various violations, but this season has been nothing short of a disappointment. Coach Jim Boeheim does still hold the reins to the team and should have them prepared to go before tip-off. I think Dayton will play with the fire and energy they displayed last tournament and will advance to the next round. Winner: Dayton

(2) Michigan State vs (15) Middle Tennessee:

The Michigan State Spartans have impressed all season long, and it’s no surprise many are picking them to take home the trophy. They possess an incredibly balanced, well-coached team that has been in this situation before, which is a testament to head coach Tom Izzo’s ability. Denzel Valentine (19.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 7.6 apg) is a walking triple-double and can lead his team to the promise land. I feel bad for Middle Tennessee; the only team that might be worse to play against is the Kansas Jayhawks. The Blue Raiders do have Giddy Potts, who not only has a great name but knocks down threes at an over 50 percent clip. The Spartans should cruise through this one without breaking a sweat, however. Winner: Michigan State

Team that will disappoint: Iowa State

Back-to-back first round exits for this team would leave fans pretty furious, but it’s certainly a possibility for this club. To be honest, none of the favored teams in the Midwest region really strike me as a potential disappointment, so the Cyclones take the title as a default. Despite their talent and offensive powerhouse, Iowa State only managed to go 10-8 in conference play (in the Big 12, however) and have dropped seven of their past 12. Georges Niang might keep this team from being upset by the hands of Iona, but I don’t see them getting past Purdue after that.

Sleeper team: Seton Hall

The Pirates played exceptionally well in their conference tournament, defeating the #1 seeded Villanova Wildcats and #2 seeded Xavier Musketeers. As described earlier, Isaiah Whitehead has been vital to this team’s success, averaging over 18 points per game and even 1.6 blocks a contest (as a guard!). Seton Hall could push Utah to the brink and even Michigan State if they continue playing at an elite level. I don’t have them advancing past Sparty in my own bracket, but don’t be surprised if you see a blue-and-white pirate logo on Final Four merchandise sometime soon.

Midwest region champion: Michigan State

To me, Michigan State is a complete team top-to-bottom. They excel in both offense and defense, as they rank third and 11th in the two categories, respectively. They have an elite coach in Izzo, a superstar in Valentine, and an athletic supporting class headlined by the young freshman Deyonta Davis. Even role players like Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello could show up and make a big impact. I think Michigan State will win its first three rounds handily and then go on to challenge the Virginia Cavaliers, who they have knocked out of the tournament the past two seasons and I predict will do so once again. Hey, it’s March after all, but the third time’s not the charm. Sparty will roll into Houston as champs of the Midwest.